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Capitol Undercurrents
THE JET--Here's the governor's jet, by the numbers, for flight activity between November 8 and December 12, courtesy of the Department of Public Safety:
- 35,529 miles;
- 93.4 hours/air time;
- 42 legs flown;
- $1,358 crew/fuel cost per hour in air;
- $126,927.80 total air time cost;
- 107 prisoners transported;
- $500 cost per prisoner flown to or from Phoenix;
- $241-$309 for a14-day ticket for a prisoner (Expedia quotes);
- 43 passenger seats filled by state employees;
- 18 passenger seats filled by "other";
- $986 per seat average for employees and "other".
The non-prison jet runs were mostly instate with the exception of the initial trip that  brought the plane to Alaska and a late November round trip between Juneau and Dallas that also included a roundtrip between Dallas and Las Vegas. Round trip commercial Juneau/Dallas cost between $476 and $1,317 (Expedia coach quotes). The actual roundtrip per passenger cost on the guv's jet was $1,842. The state spent $7,338 on the jet's roundtrip between Dallas and Las Vegas but if the passengers had flown commercially the most expensive coach passenger tickets would have totaled just $1,468 while the least expensive tickets would have cost $398 (Expedia). (Important note: the cost per person on the guv's jet includes only in-air costs and does not include ancillary aircraft costs like insurance, non-air crew time, repairs/maintenance, storage, or other associated fees or costs.)
Congrats--A lawyer friend caught an embarrassing mistake I made in the last newsletter. In an Undercurrent screed I bemoaned the "sneak and peak" provisions of the Patriot Act. He pointed out that it's actually sneek and peek. Of course it is. My embarrassment wasn't diminished by a USAToday editorial a few days later that also criticized the "sneak and peak" provisions. Hey, even though they have more proofreaders than I do, it's still a bonehead mistake.
Afraid of being Scrooged by politicos?--A story in the Puget Sound Business Journal (web-updated on Christmas Day) quoted a Bristol Bay management executive for a major processing company. He noted he's been talking to other salmon processors about the proposed Pebble Mine and hasn't found a single person supporting the mine and also found "there's a lot of people who don't want to ruffle feathers in Juneau right now." That's code for: don't make politicians angry by appearing to stand in the way of the mine. The processing exec added that, while people are quietly waiting, the "groundwork is being laid for that permit application (and) the freight train is building up steam." A fish harvester rep told the Journal reporter the "wild salmon industry, especially in Alaska, has purported to have wild salmon in pristine waters and this sort of mining would unquestionably damage that reputation." The proposed mine is just upstream from two of Bristol Bay's famed salmon rivers--the Nushagak and the Kvichak. The proposed open pit mine could be 1.5 miles long and 900 feet deep.
How I fared on my
2005 predictions
I'll confess to a failing grade of 60 percent on my predictions for 2005. Coulda, woulda, shoulda done better.
Forsooth, my foretelling failed in four instances. I thought we'd have a gas pipeline contract by the end of 2005. Instead, we not only don't have a contract, we lost members of the state's negotiating team with a messy splitting of the sheets between the guv and DNR's Magnificent Seven. I also predicted the only GOP candidate for governor would be the incumbent. Instead, he sits on the bench while Sarah Palin and John Binkley are hustling for money and the nomination. And, finally, I thought our congressional delegation would prevail, after a quarter century, on ANWR. Big oops. Finally, I bet the legislature wouldn't crack the door on spending from a permanent fund account for capital projects. HB 187 proved me wrong.
On the plus side, I hit on six of the predictions. I predicted: Renkes would resign; there'd not be even a tiny legislative step toward a real fiscal plan; that Democrats Ethan Berkowitz and Eric Croft would be the only Dems to throw their hats into the gubernatorial ring in 2005; that we'd be blindsided by an unknown issue that complicated the end of the 2005 session (the defined contribution retirement plan bit us in the hind end instead of the more predictable issues of education, capital budget, or gasline contract); legislative tweaking of oil taxes would not happen; and that House Republicans would hum "obla di, obla da life goes on" as they put aside bruised feelings from the attempted leadership coup. |
Phone: (907) 465-4947
Fax: (907) 465-2108
Mail: Sen. Elton, State Capitol
Juneau, AK 99801
 Got a scoop? Call or email your tips and suggestions to any of the email addresses below:
Email:
Senator.Kim.Elton
Jesse.Kiehl
Paula.Cadiente
Web: http://elton.akdemocrats.org |
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Off the Record's fifth annual
Ms. Cleo fortune telling test
I'm underwhelmed by all those newsies who, as a New Year's ritual, list the top news stories of the previous year. Piece-a-cake! If they were real good, real good, they'd pick the ending for upcoming 2006 news stories.
So, as I've done over the past five years in my newsletter, I ask y'all (that y'all is an artifact from our late fall vacation where we gunk-holed by auto through the South) to take a leap with me and foretell what happens in the new year. This annual predictive look ahead has evolved into the Off the Record Ms. Cleo contest. Ms. Cleo, you remember, was the faux Jamaican pitch woman for a 1-900 Tarot phone service who was eventually convicted of fraud. For what it's worth, I'm no 'fraidy cat and I've put my answers to this year's questions at the end of this newsletter.
Okay, lick the ends of your #2 pencil and stir up your pool of precognitive brain cells--here's the 2006 edition of the Ms. Cleo test:
1. Will Tony Knowles throw in for governor or cede the field to next generationers Ethan Berkowitz and Eric Croft?
A) He's in. He likes the battle.
B) He's out. He likes the pasture.
2. Will low polls and/or family keep Gov. Murkowski out of the 2006 gubernatorial sweepstakes?
A) He's in. His chief of staff, top aides and cabinet members need the jobs.
B) He's out. His hirelings can always lobby or be consultants.
3. Who wins the Democratic gubernatorial primary?
A) Tony Knowles (aka The Savior).
B) Ethan Berkowitz (The 'Killing 'em Softly' with his tongue candidate).
C) Eric Croft (The 'I'll take my Chancy' scion)
D) Someone else (who else is there? John Shively?).
4. Who wins the Republican gubernatorial primary?
A) Frank Murkowski (put that in your pipeline and smoke it).
B) John Binkley (The Riverboat King).
C) Sarah Palin (Snow White).
D) Loren Leman (Snow What).
E) Someone else (who else is there? Don Young or Stevens younger?).
5. Who prospers in the state legislative races?
A) Republicans.
B) Democrats.
C) Alaskans.
D) Both A and C.
E) Both B and C.
6. State budgeteers predict a $1.2 billion general fund surplus this year. Will any of it get stashed out of the way in the constitutional budget reserve or the permanent fund?
A) Yes (that's what Alaskans do--save as well as spend).
B) No (there's more Healy coal projects, and Anchorage fish plants, and. . .).
7. Congress backed off mandating the Gravina Island and Knik Arm bridges but Gov. Murkowski allocated more than $180 million to continue work on both in next year's state budget. Will the legislature proceed with the bridges?
A) Yes (look what the Golden Gate did for SF).
B) No (look at the escalating cost of SF's East Bay Bridge--from $300 million to $900 million to $1 billion).
C) The legislature will take a stutter step by approving far fewer dollars than the governor's proposal.
8. Will the first act of the new governor (provided it isn't Murky) be to sell the jet?
A) Yes (good politics trumps fast jets).
B) No (after all, flush toilets on a private plane are realllllly nice).
9. Will the legislature pass a constitutional amendment that prohibits benefits to same sex couples now that the Supreme Court has affirmed that right for many Alaskans?
A) Yeah (it squeaks by).
B) Nah (proponents narrowly fail to get 2/3s vote of full membership in both the House and Senate).
10. Okay, I get one last question that's unquestionably more partisan. Will the "stars aligned" GOP team that holds the presidency, all Alaska congressional seats, the governor's seat, and majorities in the state Senate and House get:
A) a gas pipeline contract with firm deadlines?
B) ANWR?
C) A scandal-free year (or at least nothing on the scale of secret and warrantless wiretaps, Abramoffs, Renkes or Ruedrich)?
D) All of the above?
E) None of the above?
Okay, test finished. Here are my answers:
1. Tony Knowles likes his pasture and, since I don't think Murkowski runs (see question 2), he doesn't otherwise have the 'fire' to get in.
2. The lights have dimmed on the power of incumbency for Murkowski. He insists he's bowing out rather than being pushed out by Binkley and Palin.
3. Yike's I don't know. Flip a coin. I'm going to skip an answer to this question even though I know that if I get all the others right the best I can do on this 2006 quiz is 90 percent. On the other hand, if I answer it I'll make two out of three friends mad.
4. Another tough one, especially since we no longer have open party primaries. Palin gets the mavericks and the GOPers dismayed by Ruedrich and Renkes. Binkley can probably raise the most money. Leman has most of the hard core conservatives that turn out well in primaries. I give it to Binkley but. . .
5. I think the Dems pick up a few seats and the legislative culture starts to change a bit. The GOP is spending too much and their voters are a bit dispirited. I'm picking 'E' since I think a change in legislative attitude after more than a decade is good.
6. Unfortunately, we haven't seen much restraint in spending in the past and the governor has not suggested any deposits to the CBR or permanent fund. I don't see much diversion to our state's most secure savings accounts.
7. Too many other transportation projects have fallen off the table because of big budget bridges so I suspect the legislature will cut the governor's proposals for the bridges but leave enough bridge money on the table to say they're moving forward. That's a classic political move designed to try and make everyone happy.
8. Flush toilets be damned. I think the jet has continuing negative political resonance and most candidates will pledge to be rid of it.
9. I think proponents of the constitutional ban will fail to get the necessary votes. They won't have mine.
10. I really want a good gasline project. On the other hand, the ANWR debate has been far too narrowly constrained--I've always questioned proposals that suggest we can simply produce our way out of the energy crisis (so just doing ANWR without progressive CAFÉ standards and other, better, energy conservation standards is shortsighted). As for scandals, my New Year's prayer is a scandal free year at all levels of government. Go ahead and chuckle, but I'm hoping for a gasline, more productive energy debates and better government.
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