Getting carded-The
holidays bring a flood of cards to legislators from groups around
the state who don't want to be forgotten in January when the session
begins. Most have messages like those we all get at home but the
UA's Geophysical Institute made my staff's eyebrows wiggle. The card
had a stunning picture of the caldera atop Mt. Wrangell where
institute staff and an international team have done extensive ice
field research. Right below a rocky peak it looked like a football
field sized logo of the institute had been stamped in the snow and
the back of the card says, " . . . before returning, the group
recreated the Geophysical Institute  logo in the pristine snow field." Well, not quite. An email
exchange with the institute revealed that, despite what the card
said, the scientists didn't spend research time and grant money
stamping out a giant logo in the snow-the seal was superimposed on
the photo with some computer magic. Wonder if Santa delivered lumps
of a black, combustible mineral solid formed under varying degrees
of increased temperature and pressure over a period of millions of
years to the Geophysical Institute holiday card
fibbers?
Carded II-Another unit of the UA sent a card with a lovely painting of a wolf. It was from the UAF School of  Fisheries and Ocean Sciences. Seems a more appropriate predator may have been a killer whale but what can we expect from a fish and ocean program headquartered in the heart of the interior city of Fairbanks instead of on the coast?
(Artwork © 2001 Daniel Smith and Pumpernickel Press)
What others say-Robert
Novak, the conservative Republican columnist who's most recent claim
to fame was outing Valerie Plame as a CIA agent,  cast his reportorial eye on
Alaska's junior U.S. Senator in his Dec. 12 national column. He
noted that newly elected Lisa was "firing her entire staff (with the
option of hiring back some aides)." Murkowski, he added, "felt that
several members of her staff, confident she would lose, viewed a
trip back to Alaska to work on the campaign as an opportunity to
vacation."
An update-Several weeks ago I wrote about some of the health and environment issues surrounding the industrial farmed salmon business on the West Coast of Canada. Soon after,  a reader forwarded an article that notes "Health Canada approves the
widespread use of a highly toxic emergency drug called Slice to control sea lice in Canadian farmed salmon." The active ingredient in Slice is emamectin benzoate, a neurotoxin listed as highly toxic by the U.S. EPA. The article notes the U.S. Food and Drug Administration does not test Canadian farmed salmon for Slice.
Marylou and Kim Elton, along with Isabel, wish everyone a happy new year.
Jesse Kiehl and Paula Cadiente, staff to Sen. Elton, looking forward to a productive new legislative session.
|
Ms. Cleo, the former faux Jamaican late-night cable TV pitch woman for a  1-900 Tarot phone service, was busted for fraud in 2002. But that can't stop our annual peek into a murky crystal ball.
So, following in the tradition established when we clicked over to the new millennium a few years back, this first-of-the-year edition once again poses some multiple choice political and policy questions Alaskans will confront in the next 12 months. As fearlessly as ever, I'll offer my divinations/guesses/answers at
the end of this column.
Don't be
afraid to save this issue and pull it out for chuckles at the end of
2005. Last year I slipped to being right on fewer than half my
predictions. That's down from about a 70 percent rating the year
before. Turns out I was too optimistic about Democratic Party
outcomes in the November general elections.
Okay, lick
the tip of your #2 pencil and once again stir up your pool of
precognitive brain cells-here's the 2005 edition of the Ms. Cleo
test:
1. What's the fate of former KFx consultant and current AG Gregg Renkes-subject of a probe by an investigator hired by the guv's office for possible conflicts of interest in his role as a broker of a tripartite deal between Taiwan, Alaska coal interests and KFx?
A) He's fired.
B) He resigns.
C) He
resigns and lobbies for KFx.
D) He sticks as AG but
the guv clips his wings and has him do just his AG job and lets
the Commissioner of Commerce (add here whatever else is part of
this cabinet officer's title) actually do the commerce and trade
stuff.
E) He remains one of the guv's most trusted
advisors with full access to the inner circle carrying a cabinet
portfolio without limits.
2. When will the
state approve a deal to construct a natural gas pipeline to markets
in the lower 48?
A) When hell freezes over and hell needs the energy.
B) As the governor has suggested, before the end of the
2005 regular session.
C) During a special session sometime
in the second half of 2005.
D) Sometime after
2005.
3. Will the
legislature make any progress on a realistic fiscal plan given the
budget surplus forecast by revenue gurus?
A) Are you kidding?
B) Maybe a teeny, tiny
incremental step.
C) Yes, the governor and the legislature
will agree this year on substantial steps that will more closely
match expected long-term revenues to expected long-term
spending.
4. Which
Republican(s) will begin raising moolah by the end of 2005 to make a
run for governor in 2006?
A) Frank Murkowski.
B) UA President Mark
Hamilton.
C) Lt. Gov. Loren Leman.
D) The GOP
ethics maven and former lite guv candidate Sarah
Palin.
E) GOP maverick Andrew Halcro (or will he mount an
independent campaign?).
F) Frank Murkowski and at least
one other.
5. Which Democrat
will begin raising moolah by the end of 2005 for a 2006
gubernatorial run?
A) Tony Knowles.
B) Fran
Ulmer.
C) Mark Begich.
D) Ethan
Berkowitz.
E) Eric Croft.
6. The governor says he wants approval this session of a $343 million revenue bond package (revenue bonds don't need voter approval) to finance maintenance and new construction projects. The 'heartburn' side of his proposal is that he says he wants to use some annual interest earnings of the permanent fund-earnings which usually are appropriated back to the permanent fund principal, to pay off the bonds. This is a significant diversion of money from the permanent fund to government spending. Will the legislature agree to this fundamental diversion?
A) No, they'll turn skittish about dipping into fund
earnings for state spending.
B) No, they'll turn skittish
and make the revenue bonds GO bonds which require voter approval
and don't tap the permanent fund.
C) No, they'll not use
any bond mechanism and pay for additional capital spending out of
anticipated GF earnings some suggest will remain high because the
price of oil will stay high.
D) Yes, the legislature will
agree with the guv to obligate some future earnings of the
permanent fund to pay for capital
projects.
 7. An increase in education funding was the fulcrum
issue in the closing days of the last year's legislative session.
What will be the central issue that must be resolved before
legislators can get out of town in 2005?
A) Education funding, again.
B) A gas pipeline
contract.
C) A capital projects list funded by the guv's
suggested backdoor use of some permanent fund
earnings.
D) We'll be blindsided by an unexpected issue
that throws us into a dither in early May.
8. Given that the legislature just tossed over the 1979 version of Mason's Rules of Order for a more modern version, will the legislature now take advantage of the non-election year to tweak state oil and gas tax rules also established in the last millennium?
A) No chance.
B) Fat chance.
C) Slim
chance.
9. Will the Saturday night coup, where some Republicans followed former House Speaker Pete Kott into a 36-hour bipartisan coalition, complicate efforts for everybody to get along in the House?
A) House Speaker-elect John Harris will surprise
everyone with his ability to work across party lines and improve
relations between the House and Senate.
B) House
Republicans, cowed by GOP party boss and confessed ethics violator
Randy Ruedrich's coup-crushing prowess, will retreat into a
partisanship lair.
C) Revenge will be taken by House
leadership and some coup Republicans will lose staff and the shine
will be off the coup leaders' proposed bills.
D) There
will be no lasting effects from the failed coup. That's how
politics goes: obla di, obla da.
10. Turning our
attention to Washington, D.C., will Congress approve opening
ANWR?
A) Yes.
B) No.
OK, test finished. Here are my answers:
1) The AG finally, reluctantly, dragging his feet, resigns. His close financial links to KFx are more than questionable and are an ethical drag on the Murkowski administration.
2) The governor is overly optimistic about crafting a complex deal between the state and three major oil companies. I think chances are less than 50/50 he can do it in the next four months so a special session will be required later in 2005. That's not bad, a fair agreement is better than a fast agreement. 3) With huge budget surpluses forecast, the guv and legislative leaders will quietly drop the ball on a fiscal plan.
4) Yikes! The crystal ball is Murky so I'll guess that Murkowski runs again and his only challenge on the right side of the political spectrum will be Halcro who runs as an independent.
5) The tea isn't done steeping so no leaves yet. I'll skate on this by saying Berkowitz and Croft will be eying the race with much more interest than Knowles, Ulmer (who has too much integrity to take the ISER job in January and leave it in the fall) or Begich. I'd go even further and hope my colleague in the Senate Hollis French thinks about it, too. He's fair, smart, well-spoken, a gentleman, and has the big-city base.
6) I can't imagine a majority of legislators will go for this trap door into the permanent fund earnings pool-especially when we lack a fiscal recipe for the future. So my guess is there'll be a GO package for capital projects.
7) The Magic 8 Ball says "ask again later." With the governor offering more money to schools, and my expectation that it's overly optimistic to expect a quick gasline contract definitive enough for legislative review, and a normal capital projects financing scheme instead of the guv's grab for permanent fund earnings, I expect some other issue to be the end-of-session fulcrum.
 8) Fat chance, or close to zero probability, that the guv and legislative leaders will address fairness in the balance between oil company profits and state profits.
9) Forgive and forget-the coup is history the GOP finds embarrassing so they'll especially want to forget which means they have to forgive.
10) ANWR is opened through maneuvers that get beyond the ability to filibuster. It's a straight opening of the refuge-not even coupled with improved CAFE (gas mileage thresholds) standards for autos, SUVs and trucks.
|
