Special Cupcake Conflagration Edition!!!

One down, more to go

The legislature finished its first week of hearings on the proposal to give a gas pipeline license to TransCanada subsidiary TC Alaska. Actually, those of us who showed up at the administration’s roll-out in Anchorage – most of the proposals biggest critics didn’t – have 10 days under our belts. What with travel and public hearings around the state, we’re not due back in Juneau until either just before or just after July 4th. (You can find a full schedule here.)

I’m planning to go to all the hearings. It’s my job, and maybe I’ll learn something. Although I’ve got to tell you that after 10 days of gas economics, my brain is pretty full.

Here are some observations:

• TransCanada is widely viewed as a first-rate pipeline company. I would have liked to see more than one qualifying application, but since we got just one, it’s good that it came from a pipeline company of this caliber.
• The economic analyses we’ve seen so far show that putting the first phase of a gas pipeline through Canada to the Lower 48 is a much better financial deal for Alaska than an LNG line. But it also shows that the absolute best deal is the overland pipeline first, followed by a spur to tidewater for LNG. If there’s enough gas to support both.
• The estimates from state and federal geologists show that there is likely to be lots and lots and lots of gas on the North Slope that can be gotten out of the ground and shipped at a profit. If gas prices stay high.
• I’ve got nothing for you on that. Lots of people think there’s been a paradigm shift in energy pricing, and that the price of gas – wedded as it is to the price of oil – will stay high. But oil is a commodity, and commodity prices can go up and down with alarming speed. What’s called “market price” is the biggest single factor in the success or failure of a pipeline project, and the best anyone can give you is an educated guess.
• The usual suspects in the oil and gas game in Alaska have been a spectral presence at these hearings. Exxon, BP and ConocoPhillips all have people here, but they’re not saying a word. At least not in public. BP and CP, of course, say they are pursuing their own gas pipeline plans. But Denali, as they call it, may be a real pipeline plan or it may just be an attempt to derail AGIA. You pick.

That other energy bill

Nothing yet from Gov. Sarah Palin on her short-term energy plan. I’m hoping that when the Palin administration rolls out its plan in 10 days, it will be much different from what was first announced. Creating a program of government handouts for everybody just doesn’t seem to me to be the right response to something that’s a big problem for some people and for some areas, but not all people in all areas.

And, at this stage, it’s still not clear if we should take up the issue during the same special session as the gas line. If we do, the two will inevitably be linked, with unpredictable results.

Gee, you don’t look a day over 75

Yes, it’s true. I turned 60 this week. As the man said, if I’d known I was going to live this long, I would have taken better care of myself. The governor threw me a little party at her house, and almost barbecued herself holding a tray of cupcakes with what looked like it might actually have been 60 candles on them. Just for the record, it took me two tries to blow them all out, which led some people to suggest that I’m not quite long-winded enough for politics.

Well, on to the next stop on the magical mystery tour. If anybody asks, I’m with the band.

Later,